5 reasons to start thinking in scenarios
The future is coming for you, and faster than you think.....
Nobody knows what the future will hold for you: there is, unfortunately, no crystal ball. The future is not 'fact-based', simply because it has not happened yet. We all know, though, that the next decade will be turbulent and ambiguous. It seems that many economies are in transition from the 'old' to the 'new' world. They will most probably encounter situations that are unprecedented.
In a highly dynamic world, it is foolish to set a strategy and just hope that the future meets the plan. Futures are impossible to predict or to forecast. How can leaders and strategists then make the best decisions in this context of unpredictability and uncertainty?
Scenarios explore plausible futures of an organization
The best way to perform in this fast changing world is to be prepared for all likely future scenarios. The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (OSPA) is a methodology to discover and experience plausible futures. With a team of peers and a facilitator, leaders systematically explore trends that seem likely to impact their future. A few trends combined are translated into a set of two to four plausible scenarios. These scenarios are further developed by the team to bring them to life for all relevant stakeholders, for example in stories, experience rooms or journeys.
Future scenarios provide leaders with decision-making power today
Once the set of scenarios is developed and experienced, leaders find it easier to imagine the impact of plausible futures in their daily business. Scenarios are used as input for strategy or risk analysis, help in (unique) product development and often lead to increased customer centricity.
Ok, but.... so what?
5 reasons to start thinking in scenarios:
1. Scenarios prepare for future disruption
Scenarios make us aware of factors that could plausibly influence our world in the near future. This knowledge helps leaders and strategists to broaden their frame of thinking about future possibilities and opportunities. Thinking in multiple perspectives of the future to come challenges dominant mental maps (the 'formal future') a
nd broadens understanding of today's realities.
Multiple perspectives of plausible future help leaders and strategists to anticipate on disruption by recognizing 'early signals'. Once the disruption occurs, leaders have the 'agility of mind' to respond in line with their vision and stay in the driver's seat.
2. Scenarios inform strategy
Knowing your scenarios is important. Translating scenarios into strategy and strategic agility is key. Experiencing different scenarios provides insights that help build more resilient strategy, assists in identifying issues and generates strategic intelligence.
Scenarios help your organization to transform into a sustainable business model with a clear (future) license to operate, clear future values and (re)focuses on the vision of the organization.
3. Scenarios develop future skills
Once the impact of scenarios on the organization is imaginable, it is easier to prepare for the silliest needed in the near future. Most probably, future organizations need skills and talents that are not (really) needed today. This strengthens the importance of pro-actively developing talents and skills today. Scenarios give input to develop future skills that suit the leadership and desired behavior in a greater variety of futures.
Also , working on scenarios teaches the team to be independent. imaginative, creative, curious, able to think outside the box, eager to consider alternative positions, and produce new insights.
4. Scenarios increase organizational agility
Disruption most often starts with 'early signals' of events that seemingly coincidentally occur. Think of changes in customer values and behavior, trade restrictions, environmental changes or usage of new energy sources.
Once the scenarios are developed and experienced, it becomes 'easier' to recognize early signals that indicate a certain scenario is unfolding. Because the strategy of the organization is based on multiple futures, the organization is ready to mode towards the new future immediately.
5. Scenarios improve todays decision-making and performance
The future is now, so all decisions concerning the future can easily be made when they are aligned to the strategic direction that was built on the set of scenarios. The decision-making quality improves considerably when benchmarked with a diverse set of scenarios.
